Oscars 2017 Predictions: Who Should Win, Who Will Win

A complete assessment of this year's incredible crop of talented nominees


    This feature initially ran in late January. We’re reposting because there’s a little awards show this Sunday where they give out golden statues.

    Another year, another boring round of Oscars, right? Not quite.

    After being hilariously trolled by last year’s #OscarsSoWhite campaign — not to mention, you know, 2016 host Chris Rock — the Academy made an effort to shake things up by diversifying its membership, adding 683 new members, a pool that breaks down to 46% female and 41% people of color. Judging from this year’s offerings, it worked.

    chris rock Oscars 2017 Predictions: Who Should Win, Who Will Win

    Then again, it helps that Hollywood also took note. Although the year started out rough, with miserable blockbusters and reboots piling on top of one another like oozing summer garbage on New York City streets, 2016 came to a close with some wildly diverse stories, from Moonlight to Hidden Figures to Fences to Lion to Loving. That’s only a handful!


    The Oscars reflect that this year. Sure, some might argue the 14 nominations for Damien Chazelle’s La La Land are a bit much — not this writer, who can’t stop singing “Someone in the Crowd” every morning in the shower — but they’re also forgetting that not every would-be juggernaut actually walks home as one. Just ask Richard Linklater…

    linklater gif Oscars 2017 Predictions: Who Should Win, Who Will Win

    When it comes to this ceremony, it’s anyone’s game, and looking ahead, it’s hard to really scoff at any of the potential Best Picture winners. They’re all bonafide critical darlings — hell, one particular win for one less favorable filmmaker could be seen as an unlikely Hollywood redemption story — and that’s the best case scenario, right?

    Well, it sure as hell beats seeing Deadpool on there. Nevertheless, take a closer look with us as we breakdown each category and try and decide who should win and who will win. Some believe there’s a science to this shit, and they’re goddamn fools.


    It’s nothing but a crapshoot.

    –Michael Roffman

    Best Animated Feature Film

    moana Oscars 2017 Predictions: Who Should Win, Who Will Win

    Kubo and the Two Strings
    My Life As A Zucchini
    The Red Turtle

    What should win: Kubo and the Two Strings

    What will win: Moana

    In a surprisingly stacked year for animated features (Finding Dory is a notable, high-grossing exclusion from this year’s nominations, for starters), this race will probably come down to familiarity over general quality. That’s not to say there are necessarily any bad entries here; Disney showed up in a big way, and their dual nominations speak to the increasing quality of their in-house work. But although we see the incredibly popular Moana taking home the prize — especially as it’s picking up steam in the weeks following the Golden Globes’ pick for Zootopia — it’s Laika’s gorgeously ambitious stop-motion/CG hybrid Kubo and the Two Strings that we favor most.

    –Dominick Suzanne-Mayer

    Best Foreign Language Film

    toni Oscars 2017 Predictions: Who Should Win, Who Will Win

    A Man Called Ove
    Land of Mine
    The Salesman
    Toni Erdmann

    What should win: Toni Erdmann

    What will win: A Man Called Ove

    Okay, so maybe Toni Erdmann was too good for this world. It absolutely could have been nominated for Best Picture. Or Best Director. Or Best Original Screenplay. Or Best Actor. Or Best Actress… For Christ’s sake Oscar, did the 160-minute runtime bum you out before you gave this movie a shot!?! IT HAS MORE HEARTBREAK AND HILARITY IN IT THAN ALL THE OTHER NOMINEES! YOU SHOULD FEEL SO LUCKY TO HAVE SOMEONE LIKE TONI IN YOUR LIFE! HE GOT US TO SING WHITNEY HOUSTON AGAIN! TAKE LIFE LESS SERIOUSLY! THIS FILM HAS A 40-MINUTE NAKED BRUNCH THAT IS QUITE POSSIBLY THE FUNNIEST AND MOST BIZARRE COMEDY SCENE THIS SIDE OF A BLAKE EDWARDS FARCE LIKE 10 OR THE PARTY.

    dynamite Oscars 2017 Predictions: Who Should Win, Who Will Win

    Sorry, where was I? Oh! Best Foreign Language Film. Toni Erdman, simply put, rules. It’s a new absurdist classic; devastatingly, deliriously human. It took Cannes by storm, had a minor release from Sony Picture Classics last fall, and was more-or-less snubbed by the Academy. So here, right here, is where deserving praise can be heaped on the eccentrically unforgettable work by Maren Ade. Before the inevitable American remake. But the Academy’s probably gonna reward the more middle-ground Man Called Ove, which is fine … but he’s not Toni.

    –Blake Goble

    Best Documentary Feature

    made in america Oscars 2017 Predictions: Who Should Win, Who Will Win

    O.J.: Made in America
    Fire at Sea

    Life, Animated
    I Am Not Your Negro
    The 13th

    What should win: O.J.: Made in America

    What will win: O.J.: Made in America

    A look back at the last 20 years of Best Documentary Oscars is not without its share of classics. Films like Man on Wire, Searching for Sugar Man, and March of the Penguins turned their subjects into something bigger than the screen, the kind of stories friends would tell each other over drinks, its subject matter so captivating that it demands to be shared. O.J.: Made in America is something different. Like Amy Winehouse and Muhammad Ali (who also saw docs about them win statues), the story of O.J. was already known. Hell, it wasn’t even the only acclaimed presentation of his life this year. But O.J.: Made in America might have been the most ambitious film of 2016 regardless for genre. Running 467 minutes over five parts, it does its damndest to tell the whole story of O.J. Simpson, letting it sprawl to cover greater issues of race in America, landing on something so insightful and thorough that no other documentary released this year stands a chance in hell.

    –Philip Cosores


    Best Cinematography

    la la land Oscars 2017 Predictions: Who Should Win, Who Will Win

    Linus Sandgren, La La Land
    Bradford Young, Arrival
    Rodrigo Prieto, Silence
    James Laxton, Moonlight *
    Greig Fraser, Lion

    Who should win: Linus Sandgren, La La Land

    Who will win: Linus Sandgren, La La Land

    La La Land has proven to be a “your mileage may vary” kind of film, but even its detractors can’t deny that this thing looks good. Get used to this sentiment, because you’ll be seeing it a lot in the entries to come. Linus Sandgren should and will win for his sumptuous take on Los Angeles—that dizzying final sequence alone makes him a sure thing—so let’s take a minute to rhapsodize about some of the year’s most expertly captured films. Silence? Breathtaking. Arrival? Awesome, and in the most literal sense of the word. Moonlight? The only potential spoiler here, as James Laxton does as fine a job capturing real-world Miami as Sandgren does capturing dream-world L.A. Jackie? Inexplicably shut out. Lion? Yeah, sure. This category may be as sure a thing as things come, but the competition sure is pretty.

    –Allison Shoemaker

    Best Editing

    la la land gif Oscars 2017 Predictions: Who Should Win, Who Will Win

    Tom Cross, La La Land
    Joe Walker, Arrival
    John Gilbert, Hacksaw Ridge
    Jake Roberts, Hell or High Water
    Joi McMillon, Nat Sanders, Moonlight

    Who should win: Tom Cross, La La Land

    Who will win: Tom Cross, La La Land

    Tom Cross already won a very deserving Oscar for editing Chazelle’s Whiplash. That thing was cut like a machine. With edits tighter than a snare drum, Cross showed an affinity for hard, rhythmic film editing that would have made Bob Fosse choke on a cigarette. To see Cross play with old staples like layered imagery, cross-fades, and long-ish takes that recalls films like An American in Paris was nothing short of eye-catching. A feast for the film nerds in all of us. There’s nothing wrong with being flashy, especially in a film about showbiz, and Cross demonstrated his knack for musical movement again with La La Land. Is it revolutionary? No, of course not. Does it get the A in film history? You betcha. This baby’s assembled in a way anyone can see and easily appreciate. So while Arrival was edited to be slow and steady, or Moonlight was cut to be abrupt and hallucinatory, Cross was like Edward Scissorhands at the edit bay. Take that, haters of quick cuts.

    –Blake Goble

    Best Original Screenplay

    lalaland Oscars 2017 Predictions: Who Should Win, Who Will Win

    Damien Chazelle, La La Land
    Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester By the Sea
    Taylor Sheridan, Hell or High Water
    Yorgos Lanthimos, Efthymis Filippou, The Lobster *
    Mike Mills, 20th Century Women

    Who should win: Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester By the Sea

    Who will win: Damien Chazelle, La La Land

    Well, the voters put themselves in one hell of a pickle this year, no? Good fucking god. From top to bottom, there’s no denying why each name and screenplay is under this banner for 2016. Mike Mills’ delicately placed family turmoil amid a bristling cultural revolution in America with 20th Century Women. Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthymis Filippou wrote the greatest Black Mirror episode with The Lobster, one that left us sucking down two Xanax as opposed to four. Taylor Sheridan grilled up cowboy ethics and class issues through the BBQ that is Hell of High Water. Kenneth Lonergan welded grief and fortitude with humor and heart to masterful results with Manchester by the Sea. And finally, Damien Chazelle turned Los Angeles into a magical, dreamy world again with La La Land. Voters are going to go with the latter, no doubt, but if they want to honor gold with gold, the award should go to … and this one requires much deliberation and thought … Lonergan. Here’s hoping they throw the curve ball toward Boston.

    –Michael Roffman

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