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2021 Golden Globes Predictions: Who Will Win, Who Shouldn’t Be There, and Who’s Missing

This year's slate of nominees is a weird mix that warrants a weirder approach to our ballots

2021 Golden Globes Predictions: Who Will Win, Who Shouldn't Even Be There
Golden Globes 2021
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    Every year, we say we’re not going to watch the Golden Globes. “They’re pay-for-play opportunists who trade awards for access,” we plea in the mirror. “Remember Pia Zadora?” And yet, just like Michael Corleone in The Godfather Part III, they pull us back in. Maybe it’s the pandemic insisting upon things to look forward to amidst the threat of impending doom. Or, more likely, we just love TV and the people who make it too much to not want to root for them to get recognition — no matter how dubious the award.

    The Hollywood Foreign Press Association, an enigmatic collective of 93 non-American journalists who nonetheless live in LA, give out their trophies every year, and the picks are virtually impossible to guess. Sometimes, it’s recognition of the best work in film and TV that year. Other times, it’s whatever buzz-worthy show or movie or performer catches their ear (or which studio influences them with lavish trips to Paris — we’re looking at you Netflix). And yet, despite our hemming and hawing about them, we still impart upon them enough cultural influence that the Globes themselves become worthy of discussion.

    It’s a weird field this year: a heady mix of deserving entries and strange categorizations, seasoned veterans and hot newcomers, and an overwhelming sense of whiteness pervading the vast majority of 2021’s nominee pool. So, in light of that, we thought it might be interesting to not just try to predict who will win the Golden Globe for almost all of the categories this Sunday, but who shouldn’t even be in the field in the first place. Naturally, we share who we’d like to see in their stead.


    Best Motion Picture – Drama

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 Film Review

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)

    The Father
    Mank
    Nomadland
    Promising Young Woman
    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Who’s Gonna Win? My money’s on The Trial of the Chicago 7, the talkiest and most accessible of these films — Aaron Sorkin’s self-congratulatory, verbose approach, in addition to his pedigree, makes this one far more palatable to HPFA voters than the others.

    Who Shouldn’t Be There? Unfortunately, the very same film that’ll win is the one that shouldn’t be here; we were mixed-to-positive in our review, but in the final estimation it’s just too shaggy and messy (and plays too Sorkin-smugly) to hold up to audiences outside the glad-handy limousine liberal crowd. In that light, it makes perfect sense why it’d have such a strong showing at the Golden Globes.

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    Who’s Missing? Netflix had much stronger awards candidates than Chicago 7 and maybe even Mank in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and Da 5 Bloods. But befitting the Globes’ allergy to diversity, it probably tracks that they wouldn’t put those in there. Plus, Minari deserves to be in this category rather than the other one, but we’ll get to that one soon enough.


    Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama

    Promising Young Woman Attempts to Scorch Earth with Provocative Rape Revenge Thriller: Review

    Promising Young Woman (Focus Features)

    Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    Andra Day, The United States. vs. Billie Holiday
    Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
    Frances McDormand, Nomadland
    Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

    Who’s Gonna Win? Mulligan’s got some real awards heat as an elusive, complicated femme fatale in Promising Young Woman; it’s the kind of turn that holds your attention, and that tends to earn you some crowns. One can cross their fingers for Frances or Viola Davis (both giving strong performances in challenging films), but this turn feels awards-calibrated.

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    Who Shouldn’t Be There? The whole field is solid, though we’d maybe kick off Davis on account of Ma Rainey herself feeling incidental to the film she’s in (the original August Wilson play focuses much more on the backing band working out their issues). But that’s a super minor complaint.

    Who’s Missing? I’m really missing Han Ye-ri from Minari and Nicole Beharie from Miss Juneteenth in here.


    Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

    Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (Netflix)

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)

    Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
    Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    Anthony Hopkins, The Father
    Gary Oldman, Mank
    Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian

    Who’s Gonna Win? It’s an even-split between Boseman and Hopkins, most likely — do you celebrate a great final lead turn from a gone-too-soon actor, or celebrate a late-career masterclass like Hopkins puts on in The Father? Tough to say, but as a recognition of his swan song, it’ll probably go to Boseman.

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    Who Shouldn’t Be There? Of the field, it’s strangely Oldman who impresses the least (though admittedly, we haven’t seen The Mauritanian so we don’t have an inkling about Rahim’s performance). He’s had his flowers; I’d be happy to oust him for someone else.

    Who’s Missing? I’m very sad that our predictions that Steven Yeun’s turn in Minari would lead to awards gold haven’t borne fruit yet; it deserves to, and he really should be on this list.


    Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

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    Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Amazon)

    Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
    Hamilton
    Music
    Palm Springs
    The Prom

    Who’s Gonna Win? I’m gonna have to give it to Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, a sequel that has enough flash-in-the-pan political relevance (Rudy’s pants, anyone?) to stick in the minds of HPFA voters.

    Who Shouldn’t Be There? In any other world, I’d give this to the limp Ryan Murphy-produced musical adaptation The Prom — trust me, we’ll get to him soon enough. But bow howdy, Music has no place in this field, a completely offensive motion picture that doesn’t just flop as a mother-daughter indie drama, but perpetuates horrid stereotypes about autistic people (and how to treat them) that have no place near awards recognition. (HPFA voters probably just saw Sia in the name and checked the box without even thinking.)

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    Who’s Missing? I’d have loved to have seen Promising Young Woman in this category since it certainly has more of a wry sense of humor than half of these candidates. But FreakyLove & Monsters, or even David Byrne’s American Utopia would have fit in really nicely in this field. Maybe even Miss Juneteenth, a film as joyous as it is overlooked.


    Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

    borat subsequent moviefilm maria bakalova 2021 Golden Globes Predictions: Who Will Win, Who Shouldnt Be There, and Whos Missing

    Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Amazon)

    Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
    Kate Hudson, Music
    Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit
    Rosamund Pike, I Care A Lot
    Anya Taylor-Joy, Emma.

    Who’s Gonna Win? It’ll go to Bakalova for Borat, and rightly so — it’s been a good long time since we’ve seen a debut this audacious and mesmerizing. I’m not mad at this one.

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    Who Shouldn’t Be There? I’m tempted to give this one to Pfeiffer for French Exit, which isn’t nearly as charming as it thinks it is. But purely by virtue of the material, and her inability to elevate it, I’ll replace Hudson in Music in a heartbeat.

    Who’s Missing? I’m rather partial to Kathryn Newton’s delightful double-turn in Freaky, and if we’re including Hamilton in the mix, I don’t see how Phillipa Soo as Eliza Hamilton didn’t give one of the most heart-rending performances of the year in the final act of that show. Oh, and lest we forget Rachel McAdams, who really lifts up Eurovision Song Contest to its modest charms.


    Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

    Andy Samberg on How Joanna Newsom Saved Palm Springs

    Palm Springs (Hulu)

    Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
    James Corden, The Prom
    Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton
    Dev Patel, The Personal History of David Copperfield
    Andy Samberg, Palm Springs

    Who’s Gonna Win? Unless Lin leverages his existing cultural heat to win a Golden Globe for the role he’s been playing for a straight-up decade, I’ve got good odds on Andy Samberg for Palm Springs — a lovely, bittersweet lead turn in an unexpectedly solid comedy that’s just dramatic enough to lend him some street cred. (I feel like HFPA will focus on Cohen for Chicago 7.)

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    Who Shouldn’t Be There? What the hell is James Corden doing here, especially for his turn as a swishy gay stereotype transported from the ’90s in The Prom? Shoo, go away, and take your overly-earnest-theater-kid schtick with you.

    Who’s Missing? Let Vince Vaughn have a later-career moment in the sun for Freaky, I beg of you. Or give it to either Keanu or Alex Winter (or both!) for Bill & Ted Face the Music.


    Best Motion Picture – Animated

    Pixar's Creative Team on Making Soul: "Personal Experience Fuels All the Movies"

    Soul (Pixar)

    The Croods: A New Age
    Onward
    Over the Moon
    Soul
    Wolfwalkers

    Who’s Gonna Win? Pixar’s Soul looks to be the frontrunner here, and it’s admittedly a good one — a welcome return to Pixar’s honorable brief of “existentially-poignant movies with cute silly characters”. My heart of hearts, I’d give it to the stunning Wolfwalkers, but if we have to pick Pixar, you could do a lot worse than Soul.

    Who Shouldn’t Be There? I haven’t seen the second Croods, and the first Croods is actually not too bad; that said, my instinct says that one is a bit more disposable than the two Pixar entries, or even Over the Moon (which benefits from a cute song and some long-overdue representation).

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    Who’s Missing? I’d have loved some love for the Spanish-German stop-motion drama The Wolf House, or you could even bring the kiddies in with the delightful Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon.


    Best Motion Picture – Foreign Language

    Minari Is Perfectly Universal: Review

    Minari (A24)

    Another Round
    La Llorona
    The Life Ahead
    Minari
    Two of Us

    Who’s Gonna Win? Minari in a landslide, not just because it’s a great film but also due to their need to make up for its blatant miscategorization out of Best Feature Film (more on that later).

    Who Shouldn’t Be There? Strangely enough, Minari — it’s a masterwork, but woefully misplaced here, a category typically intended to highlight films that exist outside of the English-speaking world. While it technically fits, its marginalization in this category feels like a slap in the face to a film that is maybe one of the most American stories to come out in the last several years.

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    Who’s Missing? Beanpole, Vitalina VarelaBacurau — plenty of other great foreign language flicks could have filled Minari‘s spot, though the rest of the field is pretty solid.


    Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 Film Review

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)

    Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
    Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
    Jared Leto, The Little Things
    Bill Murray, On the Rocks
    Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami…

    Who’s Gonna Win? In an already-packed ensemble, Cohen’s is the showiest and most awards-friendly, and given the HFPA’s existing love affair with Sorkin’s historical courtroom drama, it’s likely it’ll go to him (especially as a double-reward for Borat). A potential also-ran is Daniel Kaluuya in his charismatic turn as Fred Hampton in Judas and the Black Messiah, though.

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    Who Shouldn’t Be There? Begone, Jared Leto, and your weird little voices! No one wants you here! Especially for your brief yet all-too-bizarre turn in The Little Things!

    Who’s Missing? It’s absolutely criminal that Paul Raci isn’t here for Sound of Metal; he’s just as integral to that film (one of the best of the year) as Riz Ahmed, and he deserves more recognition.


    Best Director – Motion Picture

    Nomadland Film Review

    Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)

    Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
    David Fincher, Mank
    Regina King, One Night in Miami…
    Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
    Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

    Who’s Gonna Win? I’m willing to bet Emerald Fennell will take it on account of how much goodwill there is behind Promising Young Woman, but I wouldn’t count out Zhao for Nomadland either — I feel like they might give it to her in recompense for spurning it elsewhere.

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    Who Shouldn’t Be There? Sorkin, really; he’s never been great at directing his own scripts, and Chicago 7  is one of his weaker ones. Plus, its primary appeal is in the script and cast anyways, less so his directing.

    Who’s Missing? Spike Lee for Da 5 Bloods, Lee Isaac Chung for Minari, Eliza Hittman for Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Channing Godfrey Peoples for Miss Juneteenth… the list goes on.


    Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

    David Fincher's Mank Is a Dense, Technically Marvelous Ode to Old Hollywood: Review

    Mank (Netflix)

    Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
    Jack Fincher, Mank
    Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
    Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller, The Father
    Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

    Who’s Gonna Win? I’d bet on Jack Fincher, later father of David, for Mank, if only for the “in memoriam” vote.

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    Who Shouldn’t Be There? Look, I know that Sorkin’s more-is-more approach to screenwriting makes him beloved, but his screenplay for Chicago 7 leans way too hard into the talky Sorkinisms to elevate itself beyond a masturbatory actor’s showcase. Begone.

    Who’s Missing? I’d give Lee Isaac Chung some writing nods for Minari, or Spike Lee for Da 5 Bloods.


    Best Original Score – Motion Picture

    Alexandre Desplat, The Midnight Sky
    Ludwig Goransson, Tenet
    James Newton Howard, News of the World
    Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Mank
    Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, and Jon Batiste, Soul

    Who’s Gonna Win? Soul, no question: the numbers game alone favors Reznor and Ross, who have two nominations in this category, but their collab with Jon Batiste for Soul is already getting plenty of attention, and I don’t see how that doesn’t continue here.

    Who Shouldn’t Be There? I love me some Alexandre Desplat, but his score for George Clooney’s obnoxious The Midnight Sky is overwrought, demonstrative, and just way way too much. Let it fade into the depths of space, and make room for more deserving folks…

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    Who’s Missing? …like Emile Mosseri’s yearning, airy score for Minari, or Terence Blanchard’s signature brassiness in his music for Da 5 Bloods.


    Best Original Song – Motion Picture

    “Fight For You” – Judas and the Black Messiah (H.E.R, Dernst Emile II, Tiara Thomas)
    “Hear My Voice” – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Daniel Pemberton, Celeste Waite)
    “Io Si (Seen)” – The Life Ahead (Diane Warren, Laura Pausini, Niccolò Agliardi)
    “Speak Now” – One Night in Miami… (Leslie Odom Jr., Sam Ashworth)
    “Tigress & Tweed” – The United States vs. Billie Holiday (Raphael Saadiq, Andra Day)

    Who Will Win? Big money’s on Leslie Odom Jr.’s soulful, Sam Cooke-esque ballad “Speak Now,” though I wouldn’t be surprised to see “Tigress & Tweed” take it (if they don’t give Andra Day any acting awards, they might at least throw her Best Song as a consolation.)

    Who Shouldn’t Be Here? Eh, I’m less than impressed with “Hear My Voice”, which sounds like a creakier version of the kinds of ballads Diane Warren is typically known for (and who puts in a lovely showing here for The Life Ahead), despite Celeste’s celestial vocals.

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    Who’s Missing? Five words — Play Ja Ja Ding Dong! (Though seriously, if there’s a song from Eurovision to include, it’s “Husavik”).


    Best Television Series – Drama

    The Crown Season 4 Belongs to Princess Diana: Review

    The Crown (Netflix)

    The Crown
    Lovecraft Country
    The Mandalorian
    Ozark
    Ratched

    Who’s Gonna Win? This is pretty much The Crown’s game to lose — Lovecraft Country could squeak out a come-from-behind win, but considering how many other nods it’s snatched up, it’s looking like it’s Queen Liz’s time to shine.

    Who Shouldn’t Be There? Ratched, no question: Ryan Murphy’s over-the-top prequel to One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest isn’t just a limp hodgepodge of his well-documented TV stylings (bright costumes, Grand Guignol gore, grande queer dames laying on the camp), it’s also one of the most incongruous matches of material to presentation ever made. Who needed a Nurse Ratched prequel, and why did it have to feel like an aborted season of American Horror Story?

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    Who’s Missing? No mention of I May Destroy You or Better Call Saul is downright criminal, and the HFPA should be dragged in front of the Hague for such crimes. (Figuratively, of course.)


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